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Governor Kazuo Ueda of the Bank of Japan indicated that the central bank will not raise interest rates next week, despite the yen's decline to a near three-month low. He emphasized that there is ample time to consider future policy decisions following discussions with G20 counterparts in Washington.
The Bank of Japan's monetary meeting on October 30-31, 2024, is anticipated to maintain current rates, with a potential 0.10% hike in December being a possibility. Governor Kazuo Ueda's cautious stance on inflation and growth, alongside uncertainties from the US elections, may influence future rate decisions. Market participants are closely watching economic forecasts and the widening US-Japan bond yield differentials, which have strengthened the USD/JPY, while the Nikkei 225 faces upward trendline support amid limited risk-taking.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed concerns over the timing and scale of future interest rate hikes, emphasizing that determining the appropriate normalization of Japan's monetary policy is a constant challenge for him. He stated, “That keeps me awake 24/7,” during a recent event in Washington.
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate during the upcoming meeting on October 31, with most economists predicting a hike in December or January. A recent survey indicates that 53% anticipate a rate increase in December, while expectations for January have risen to 32%.
Japan’s 40-year government bond yield has surged to its highest level since 2008, reaching 2.535% amid speculation of impending interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. While the central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark rate at 0.25% in the upcoming meeting, the swaps market indicates a 66% probability of a quarter-percentage-point increase by January.
Norway's sovereign wealth fund reported a third-quarter profit of 835 billion kroner ($76.3 billion), driven by a stock market surge due to falling interest rates. The fund's value reached 18.870 trillion kroner, with a 4.4% overall return, slightly below its benchmark. Despite positive returns across investment areas, heightened global risks were noted amid a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Asian indices showed positive momentum, with the Nikkei rising 1.65% and the ASX up 0.88%, while the Hang Seng Index faces uncertainty due to unclear Chinese fiscal policies. The Straits Times Index remains resilient, supported by strong dividend yields and potential increases in quality listings, aiming for a retest of its September high.
The Bank of Japan may continue its rate hikes despite recent statements from the Prime Minister suggesting otherwise. With inflation at 3% and significant wage increases anticipated, the economic fundamentals support further normalization of monetary policy, potentially stabilizing the yen.
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